cat

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says you can be bearish, but you have to admit when you're wrong.

Oh boy, I hit a nerve. My last two days of donning the bear suit and imitating the bears has brought on a cacophony of critics, all of whom think that I am attacking them personally! That's right, they think I have read them, seen them and heard them and that I am spoofing them or making fun of them.

Moreover, they think that I am wildly bullish and that I am mocking them for not wanting to buy things here.

I'm reiterating my Buy rating for Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), first recommended on April 13, 2009, at a price of $33.02. If you bought CAT in April, you're up about 68%.

The growth story remains the same regarding Caterpillar: after a global recession that substantially reduced demand, the U.S. and global recoveries will enable construction and agriculture equipment to continue to rebound. Caterpillar's recent increase in its FY2009 EPS guidance to $1.85-2.05 adds to the positive mix. The First Call FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for CAT are $2.00 to $2.67.

There is no question that the recession took its tool on Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT). The company saw its stock plummet from mid 2008 through March of this year. Along the way the company was forced to layoff employees to help lower costs, but it announced today that it would be rehiring 550 of its laid off workers.

Chief Executive Officer Jim Owens announced the news and stated that the company was pleased that "signs of recovery in the global economy" is allowing it to bring back some employees.

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• AirTran Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AAI) reported its third consecutive quarterly profit and will increase capacity.
• Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) shares soared after it reported very strong Q3 numbers.
• Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) reported stellar Q4 results, driven by the popularity of Macs and iPhones.
• BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK) Q3 earnings soared, due in part to a tax benefit, and assets managed grew.
• Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM) revenue surged sequentially but note the would be flat going forward.
• Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) beat Q3 earnings expectations and shares rose though revenue slumped.

Analyst upgrades:

• FBR Capital upgraded M&T Bank (NYSE: MTB) to Market Perform from Underperform following the Q3 results to reflect the company's improved earnings outlook and better credit trends. The firm has a $70 price target on shares.
• Kaufman Bros. upgraded Autodesk (NASDAQ: ADSK) to Buy from Hold as it believes a bottom has been reached in the manufacturing and construction industries. The firm raised its target on shares to $30 from $26.
• Goldman upgraded Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) to Neutral from Sell and raised its target to $64 from $48 citing improved cost controls and construction outlook.
• Pentair (NYSE: PNR) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc.
• Lexmark (NYSE: LXK) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan.
• Stryker (NYSE: SYK) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill.

Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) is doing great. The stock is hot, and even though the company is still reporting sales and earnings declines, you just know that the fundamentals will eventually get better. In the meantime, management is doing its best to beat earnings expectations.

Yesterday, management succeeded. For the third quarter, according to our Closing Bell post, Caterpillar said it made 64 cents per share. Analysts were expecting only 6 cents per share. Well, something was off there, huh? Anyway, according to the actual press release, sales decreased over 40%, and per-share profit was off by 15%, but really, it didn't matter to the market. Shares of the heavy equipment maker closed higher by 3%, on heavy volume.

Despite some very tame inflation reports, the housing data was deemed as a disappointment. Investors used today's early strength to sell stocks to lock in profits or to take at least some money off the table. Of the five DJIA components which reported earnings, the pre-earnings gains were astounding on most of them.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 10,041.48 -50.71 (-0.50%)
S&P 500 1,091.07 -6.84 (-0.62%)
Nasdaq 2,163.47 -12.85 (-0.59%)

Top 10 Analyst Calls
Top Market Rumors
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Analyst upgrades:

• American Express (NYSE:AXP) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at FBR Capital, as the firm sees limited near-term downside in the stock. The firm raised its target price on the shares to $37 from $25.
  
• RBC Capital upgraded Estee Lauder (NYSE:EL) to Outperform from Sector Perform. Target to $44 from $34. UBS upgraded Nestle on expectations the company will begin returning cash to shareholders via buybacks and dividends.
  
• Piper Jaffray raised Dicks Sporting (NYSE:DKS) to Neutral from Underweight following positive channel checks and raised its target on the shares to $28 from $18.
  
• Sohu.com (NASDAQ:SOHU) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell by Pali Capital.
  
• Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) was raised to Buy from Hold by Natixis.
  
• Sunpower (NASDAQ:SPWRA) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Macquarie.
• China Automotive (NASDAQ:CAAS) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merriman.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says you take your life into your own hands if you fade the opening in today's market.

A year ago with the futures up, all you could think of is how much you wanted to "fade" that opening, how great it would be just to lay out any shorts into strength. You could choose pretty much anything going into earnings season.

The techs? Last good quarter. The banks? A travesty. You didn't even know if the banks you are short would survive. The oils? Free fall. The metals? Amazing downward pressure coming from hedge fund redemptions. The insurers? Will they make it? Retail? The balance sheets looked terrible going into what would be a terrible holiday selling season. The autos and auto-related? Disaster.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the weak dollar is benefiting U.S. corporations and no longer going against them.

Why have the industrials been so red-hot? Why do they seem to levitate? One reason, of course, is that people think the economy's getting better. A second reason is that even if the economy stands still vs. last year the comparisons will be amazing and nothing gets the juices going more rapidly than easy comparisons.

Why will they be so glaring? First, the layoffs have been brutal, the cost-cutting immense and it hasn't hurt at all ... yet. It is totally and unequivocally positive.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says it's great to see stocks go up, but discipline remains paramount.

Can you weary of a market going higher? Can you be as exhausted of the rally as you are of a selloff? Sometimes that's how I feel when I look at my bases for stocks I own and where they are now and realize the impossibility of reaching for even the best names. It feels like what happens when you bought low, and then it turned out that things could go much lower. You feel like you should sell, but then the stocks go much higher and you get left behind.

This is a time when discipline has failed people. It is when the market is most electric and exciting and people just figure, "What the heck? I will hold on to that Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) (Cramer's Take) or Deere (NYSE: DE) (Cramer's Take) or Chesapeake (NYSE: CHK) (Cramer's Take) or Devon (DVN) (Cramer's Take) ... and why not? It hasn't hurt me."

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the action that is linked to the futures markets, such as oil, is distorting rational analysis.

Maybe one day we can escape the commodity linkage and begin to trade on the fundamentals again, something that seems more distant now than any time I can recall. We are totally marching to gold, to oil, to copper, and not the fundamentals.

Throughout the era in which China has become a superpower and hedge funds have become the super arbiters or what goes up or down, we have been stuck with this fairly bogus linkage that corrupts trading and makes a mockery out of some of the most important financial analysis out there, the actual attempts to discover what's really happening at companies.

I'm reiterating my Buy rating for Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), first recommended on April 13, 2009 at a price of $33.02. If you purchased CAT at that time, you're up a solid 41%.

Back in April, I put CAT in the not-for-the-squeamish category, due to the uncertain timetable for the U.S./global recoveries: the upside was always there, but so was the potential for a 30% hair cut.

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) said its earnings report would not include a conference call.
• Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) shares rose after it reaffirmed the 2009 outlook and forecast further growth.
• Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) said its Q4 numbers tumbled despite cost-cutting efforts.
• Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) posted strong Q2 results, though its cash flow was flat.
• Crocs Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) reported better-than-expected Q2 results and forecast a return to profitability.
• Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) revenue surged in Q1 and its narrower loss beat expectations.

U.S. stock markets may be poised to rise, extending their gains from earlier this week, as traders bet that the worst of the steepest economic decline since the Great Depression is ending. Then again, they may end their recent winning streak.

It's one of those days.

S&P Futures expiring in September were little changed as investors digested the latest batch of earnings news. These recent quarterly reports have been largely viewed positively. Some investors may be worrying if stock valuations have gotten too rich.